Nicholsclan.com : a dimension of mind...

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Labor Day weekend brings about curious statements. Mr. Bush is quoted as saying, Every day, our workers go to factories and offices and farms and produce the world's finest goods and services. Their creativity and energy are the greatest advantage of the American economy." It's a heart swelling statement, but one not generally accepted by the executives who run some of the largest factories, offices, and farms in this country. And therein lies the rub.

The recent economic downturn has spurred ever larger numbers of companies to push more and more jobs overseas to third world countries. Where a decade ago, it was manual labor jobs heading abroad, today it's office work, and increasingly technical jobs in the Information Technology and Engineering sectors. There are a number of factors at work here.

At the global level, there is an undeniable trend toward a normalization of the world economy. Our communication and transportation network has reached a level where geographic barriers are no longer formidable in many businesses, and this trend continues unabated. Top notch education is available in emerging third world countries. As long as the politics of the region is stable enough and committed enough to building the physical infrastructure, talented labor is available for cheap. Third world economies grow as business from mature economies migrates to take advantage of the cheap labor. What is less spoken of is the inevitable decline of the mature economies as a result of the migration. This is a classic "mattress in the road" paradox. For any given company in the U.S. (as an example), it is in their economic interest to move operations overseas and layoff their comparatively higher paid U.S. employees. However, considering the U.S. economy as a whole, this is a death spiral. Id all companies do that, then the unemployed or under-employed Americans are no longer financially able to purchase the products being produced overseas for them. Markets and companies collapse, and the economy becomes more depressed. Much like a mattress in the road, traffic is benefited most by someone stopping to remove the obstruction, but each car in line is incented to simply drive around it.

I'm certainly not the first to ring the alarm bell in this arena. Bells were sounding when the manual labor manufacturing jobs left. And most of the worst case scenarios were abated when service sector jobs replaced manufacturing jobs. But many of those employees remain under-employed today and that means less consumer buying power. I have no doubt that as white collar jobs move, more of the same will happen. This keeps the spiral nice and slow so no one panics. But generation to generation, the country suffers. Is this the legacy we want to leave our children?

In a different vein, I'm also concerned about the future of the very companies currently pushing jobs overseas. I'm not concerned about their declining sales, but rather their declining talent pool from which to groom the managers and executives who run their operations. Right now, it is all the entry level position being moved abroad. In fact, many of these offshore markets have a disconcerting lack of management talent available. But that will change over time. As their entry level people mature, they will be less dependent on domestic management. More and more higher level jobs will move overseas. But at some point, if a domestic company is to remain more than a U.S. based stock symbol on the ticker, there has to be some U.S. based presence. Some U.S. employees, and presumably ones at pretty high talent levels. I'm wondering, 30 years down the road, where all those seasoned talented executives will come from. We didn't grow them here. We don't hire people in those fields any more. Will we then be importing executives from overseas to mange our companies whose operations are all overseas? To what advantage? Obviously, the companies themselves will eventually migrate.

Not to fear, in several generations the world economies will normalize and the U.S. will again be an attractive or at least cost neutral labor market. But our way of life will erode considerably before that happens. It won't be a pretty century to live in. So what is there to do? On the one hand, our government could step in and impose tariffs on imported goods and services making our economy artificially attractive once again. But that is an erected facade, and will also erode our ability to export goods and services, which ultimately is essential to our economic success. Sooner or later that bubble has to burst.

I would contend that it is the incentives which our corporate executives currently operate under which ultimately are to blame, and ultimately the lever to fix things. Executive are incented for long term gains. It is not uncommon for an executive to swoop into a company, make drastic changes to save millions of dollars and then ride out of town with several million in his pocket. For domestic companies to succeed, executives have to be vested, financially and emotionally, in their success. They need to shepherd the company as its founder would have. It needs to be their baby. I'm not entirely certain how to construct a compensation package or media campaign to achieve that goal, but I do believe it is the solution. I'm also pretty sure that most of the founders of American flagship companies would roll in their graves if they could see how their babies are being managed today.

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Talk about an onomatopoetic death. This guy's parents should have known that name was going to lead to trouble.

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Back to Iraq. It's hard to stay away. Apparently harder if you're the president. With admissions now that we are stuck in Iraq for a long time to come and that it is draining us at almost $4B/month, dear Mr. Bush is stuck between the proverbial rock and a hard place. It's too late to back out now, and political suicide to admit that we shouldn't have gone. If we leave now, the level of disorder in the Mid East will clearly increase, thereby leaving it in a worse and more unstable state than it was in before the war. All this is compounded by the state of the economy and the mounting deficit which all indicate that we can't afford to stay for one reason, and can't afford to leave for the other. There is no obvious way to win.

That is, unless you're Haliburton. It is estimated that up to 1/3 of the monthly burn in Iraq is going to independent contractors, and Mr. Cheeney's old company is getting a big chunk of that. I suppose this is a backwards way to pump cash back into the economy, but I'd be surprised if much of that money got back to American employees. A few executives are getting rich, but hardly anyone else here.

I wonder how long it will be before India starts recognizing that we are outsourcing logistical military support and starts focusing on scooping up that business? Okay, so that was cynical, but I work in the technology industry and the only thing more annoying than our foreign policy is the trend for big business to move more and more jobs offshore. But that's another rant for another time.

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So who among you would have guessed that the actual FBI (motto: "saving the world before bedtime") would have a kids' site? And just who are Darrell and Shirley? And why were death defying, C4 sniffing, cartoon, not-so-black labs chosen as the anthropomorphic face of juvinile law enforcement? I wonder if any actual children have ever been to this site? Fortunately, it's time for bed.

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If you're under quota for the year I have some friends who'd be happy to help you out!

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The good citizens of the state of Ohio went so far as to cut power to most of the northeast in order to keep their Canadian friends from embarrassing themselves with this bit of legislation. No wait. That can't be right. When you're embarrassed, you tend to smile. Maybe it's the lack of sperm (see Aug. 16th) which is causing the dour expressions. No wait. That can't be right. If they were naturally unhappy they wouldn't need this rule. Honestly I'm mostly interested to see if it's possible to take a legal passport photo of a five year old.

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I don't want to make light of the heartbreaking tale of the autistic boy who died recently during a prayer session on his behalf. The story is tragic, and while all the answers are not in, it doesn't look like there was an intent to hurt the boy. Just a misguided desire to rid him of his evil spirits by a seriously dim-witted group of Christians.

However, this story is a good illustrative example of the types of situations which led me ultimately to my state of atheism. I thought I would share the reasoning. For the purposes of this discussion I'm going to assume there is a Christian God and that he is omnipotent and omniscient as most every Christian denomination would claim. Now some claim that God is not actively participating in the world. He doesn't intervene. He may have in the past, or again in the future, but you won't see God's hand in the world we live in. I would claim that if that's so, there is little reason to believe since he is irrelevant to our lives. True, there's the whole heaven/hell afterlife thing, and maybe that's reason in and of itself, but for now I'd like to concentrate on his role in our mortal lives. I claim that for God to have a role, he has to actively participate in the world.

So given that he has a role, can we understand it? Some would claim that you cannot comprehend the plan of God. It's too complex and simply beyond our capability. If that's true, then God's actions are effectively random as far as we mortals are concerned. If we can't comprehend any sort of cause and effect relationship, then what we do can't influence how God acts. For all intents and purposes we are right back to God not interacting. Random actions are just as irrelevant as no action, albeit maybe a little scarier. So I would contend that God not only must act, but his actions must be comprehensible.

How then, can a situation like the news about the autistic boy have possibly come to pass. God is omniscient; he had to know what was happening. God is omnipotent; he had to be able to stop it. His actions are comprehensible, therefore there is some rationale why an innocent child was allowed to perish in his name. The only trouble is, I can't fathom one. For me, it's easier to believe this was just a sad and unfortunate confluence of several factors than to believe that a god had a good reason for this to happen. I understand accidents. I even understand malice and evil (or at least accept that it is out there). I don't understand an all-powerful all-knowing being effectively playing dice with the world in which I live. This is a small part of why my life is simpler (to me) without a god in it. I accept that perhaps this isn't true for your life, and I'm not trying to assert my view is correct. However, I do hope you found this thought provoking.

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It's nice to get out in the rural communities once in a while. The newspaper here reported that the local Sherriff was investigating a case of cattle rustling. Cattle rusting? They still do that? I had visions of kids on 4-wheelers driving dairy cows across the rocky plains of St. Lawrence county to rebrand the little doggies. So far they know it was some guys wearing workboots who loaded some calves into a truck. I think they might be calling in the CSI crew, or at least going under cover at the local taverns to listen for braggarts. Anyways, it passes for big news here, and it sure sounds more ominous when you call it "cattle rustling" rather than "some kids stole some cows."

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Ahhh... the good life. Vacation. Where you can spend your days dragging your kids at high speeds behind boats and it doesn't count as child abuse. Well, they wouldn't say that. Actually, they are more inclined to claim abuse because I actually made them sweep the walks, haul stuff to the compost pile, and other tasks usually reserved for prisoners of war. It has taken up several precious moments of their vacation, but I think they'll live. I even make them read for 30 minutes every morning with me - mostly because I need coffee and a few moments before I'm prepared to bait hooks or drive boats - but it's good for them in a sadistic scholastic sort of way. After all, school starts in less than 3 weeks. You should see them wince when I mention that!

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Will the senseless heat-related tragedies of summer never end? The heck with Liberia, we need to start focusing on helping our best-est buddies in not-so-merry-'ol England!

And while probably not so heat related, our friends to the north are suffering as well. Although a cynical person might suspect this is just another post-SARS attempt to attract Americans up to Canada for weekend romp.

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Greetings from the oasis of light in the land of the dark. Once again I feel I should somehow feel guilty. This time, most of the east coast of the US went dark, and I stayed lit. Of course I had to suffer through the fact that many TV stations were off the air and such, but one finds a way to manage through these troubled times. I did find it interesting that there was a line over a quarter mile long to get into the village last night as it was one of the only powered gas stations in the area. All those people who thought they were so well equipped with the back-up generators apparently never bothered to stock up on fuel for them. It's always something.

And bad form for the Democratic Congressmen who suggested the power failure was somehow Bush's fault. I've certainly blamed the man for all kinds of ills, but even I'm finding it hard to pin this on him. It is easy to pin it on the power industry though. Like most businesses they are trying desperately to cut costs. And like most businesses, they are increasingly deciding to take risks about things like disaster recovery plans. They are expensive and unlikely to be used, so it's hard to justify the investment. That is, until you get caught with a bone fide emergency. Busted.

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George is at it again. In an effort to remove the threat of forest fires, Bush is going to get to the root of the problem and remove the trees. Not all of them of course. This is a thinning project whereby his friends in the big lumber industry would come in and selectively log 1000 acre tracts that are deemed "fire prone". It doesn't seem to matter that mature trees are rarely the cause of these fires. You just don't see spontaneous tree combustion. Rather it's all the crap on the forest floor which seems to seed the fires. But companies aren't lining up to come in and sweep. No money in that. Let's also ignore the volume of research showing that fires are a natural and necessary part of the natural forest cycle, and trees are good for pollution and global warming. I'd like to think Bush is just stupid, but again, the evidence points toward him thinking we are.

I liked comedian Ed Helms' comment that this was at least a consistent policy for Bush. In order to save something, you need to kill part of it first. It worked in Iraq, why not in the forest?

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I read a newspaper column a few days back by Jane Eisner. She asserted that Democrats needed to get more in touch with God if they were going to win the next election. Her thesis was that too many Democrats came off as non-religious. That Clinton and Carter were electable because they had faith visible to the populace and people trusted that. The author went on to site a study showing that Muslims, Jews, and Evangelicals fared worse than generic Christians in straw polls. But most surprising to me was that fully half of all respondents would not vote for a well qualified atheist for President based on that fact alone.

As an atheist myself, that's a bit of a wake up call. Yet I feel I shouldn't have been as surprised as I was. After all, while I've been able to hold my head high and pronounce myself an atheist for many years, it's not a position I offer casually. It's not that I'm ashamed of what I believe (or more accurately, what I don't), but it seems to make many people downright uncomfortable. I've often felt it would be easier for people to accept that I'm an idol worshipping goat sacrificing pagan rather than an atheist. I've actually had people disbelieve that I was really an atheist at all, asserting that maybe I was just agnostic or having a little faith crisis and that I would get over this like it was a cold or something.

Curiously, people seem to accept and even respect that people have different religious faiths more easily than they can accept that they have no religion at all. Ironically, most atheists I know only came to the conclusion they were atheists after fairly lengthy studies of other religions and years of serious soul searching. Many (if not most) avowed atheists have spent much more energy examining their lives and developing personal philosophies than the average theist. This is not a position arrived at lightly or trivially. And frankly, I think the position deserves some respect.

Please understand that while atheism is, by definition, the lack of a belief in a god, it is not the "default" belief in our society. Those living unexamined lives pass as "Sunday Christians". They grew up in the church of their parents and go through the learned rituals without ever wondering why. In our society, being atheist means (in most cases) stepping away from that Newtonian path and making different choices.

I've found that in many ways I relate to the struggles of the gay and lesbian community. Like being gay, atheists are not identifiable in a crowd. We don't stand out because of our ethnicity, or wheelchairs, or other identifiers. Like being gay, many people feel atheism is not a valid lifestyle, and further that it's just a misguided choice. The ignorant assert that with the proper training and discipline, gays and atheists would make better choices and fit in like everybody else. Like gays, coming out of the closet is difficult and makes some people you care about uncomfortable. And like gays, what atheists have in common is not much.

Some of the most ridiculous questions I get asked start with the phrase, "What do atheists think/feel/believe about...?" There is no organization of atheists. "We" don't think anything in unison. That is not to say we are amoral, or have no beliefs or codes of conduct. It is just to say that those moralities, philosophies, codes of conduct, and honor are as diverse as all of the human population. It's like asking, "What do gays do on dates?" It's not like there's a handbook.

Unlike gays, atheists are not a recognized minority. There are no diversity efforts related to us. We are as invisible as gays were 30 years ago. We are also not persecuted the way many gays were and are, which is probably why we haven't risen up to be recognized. But I think our time may be coming.

The sour economy, the terrorist threat, the globalization of the world are all driving an increased sense of tribalism in our society. Despite our assertions about separation of church and state, the Christian God is getting an increasing amount of political airtime. To Ms. Eisner’s point, the Republicans do an exceptional job of keeping their conception in god in the spotlight. More frightening yet, are statements like the one George Bush senior made in Chicago in 1987 where he stated, "I don't know that Atheists should be considered as citizens, nor should they be considered patriots. This is one nation under God." The press gave this very little coverage. Atheists are still fair game. Could you imagine this statement being made about Blacks, Jews, women, gays, or any other group without it having been political suicide? The younger Bush is wilier, and is wont to refer to atheists as "our citizens who profess no religion at all". He is careful not to use the word "atheist", but I think that is just his way of ignoring us altogether. After all, "professing no religion" is implying the identification of a (perceived) void. It is not acknowledgement or acceptance of a valid personal philosophy of life which does not incorporate organized religion and a god.

I certainly can't speak for atheists in general, but personally, I have no desire to alter your faith in whatever you believe in. I respect that your system of beliefs is functional in your life. It works for you. Mine works for me, and all I want is a little reciprocal respect. Sure sounds like the Christian thing to do.

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This couple's problems go way beyond the Ohio judicial system. On the other hand, if Ohio can't find a suitable rule which has been broken, I'm sure the Boy Scouts could loan them one.

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And you gotta love California, don't you? As if the recall vote for Gray Davis wasn't embarrassing enough, the replacment candidates now include Ahnold Schwarzenegger, Gary "Diff'rent Strokes" Coleman, and Larry Flynt of Hustler fame. Residents of that state must be sooooo proud...

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Miss me? I've been off at cub scout camp which will be released on video soon as "Rules Gone Wild". Don't get me wrong, I'm a fan of rules and safety and such. However, there's a point at which it can be overdone. Let's take aquatics for example. Upon entering camp, everyone has to report to the pool for a water test where you will be ranked as blue, red, or white level based on swimming ability. Fair enough. I figure that obviously some of the coming activities will be segregated by ability. Fortunately, my son and I are there early and don't have to wait long get our top blue level ratings (complete with colored wrist bands as well as name tags to be posted at the pool and waterfront). We find out that later in the afternoon the wait to be tested becomes in excess of an hour. The staff devotes over 5 hours to test every camper. Clearly this is important stuff.

Morning comes, and our group, Mountain Man 1, is scheduled for pool time early. We arrive at the small facility (less than half the size of a typical high school pool) and are greeted by no less than four lifeguards. The leader introduces himself and for 15 minutes explains all the various rules. Upon entering the fenced pool area, your name tag and the tag of your "buddy" must be removed from the outside board and placed on the inside board in the one of the three areas where you will be. You can be in the deep end only if you are blue. Blues or Reds may be in the shallow end. Whites must be the buddy of a blue adult and may only be in the shallow end. Anyone may be on the deck. If you change locations in the pool (move from deep to shallow to deck), then you and your buddy must each get out and move your tag to the corresponding position on the board. Every 15 minutes, the whistle blows for buddy check. You must stand with your buddy, holding hands in the air, until the staff has counted everyone and checked to be sure all tags are where they are suppossed to be on the board.

At the waterfront awaits an equally dizzying litany of rules about which colors can be in which types of boats and with whom. Yet everyone is required to wear a PFD, and there are lifeguards patrolling the pond both on shore and in a boat.

No one in the history of watersports has ever been safer than we were. In fact, I'm thinking the government should take a page from the BSA to improve traffic safety. The roads would be much safer if everyone had to take a driving test each week to qualify to drive a car. Then every morning you would need to file a plan with the police indicating which roads you would be taking and at what times. If you decided to swing by the market for bread on your way home, you would first have to call in and file a change of plan. Every 15 minutes, all traffic would have to stop and police would check to see if everyone was on the road they were suppossed to be on. Violators would be shot on site.